Actuarial Analysis of National Center for Policy Analysis – Proposal for Medicare

This report presents our analysis of the Medicare proposal as described in the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) report, “A Framework for Medicare Reform,” as published in September 2008, with some modest revisions that are described in the next section of this report. We have performed this analysis at the request of the NCPA.

The report includes various sections detailing findings, caveats, limitations on the use of this report, and its findings, documentation of methodology, assumptions (including some sensitivity analysis), and other considerations. The report should be read in its entirety while keeping in mind all caveats, limitations, and considerations noted.

Findings in this report are generally presented by comparing projections of status quo Medicare results intended to be consistent with the Medicare Trustees Report alternative projections (issued May 13, 2011) and anticipated results under the NCPA Medicare reform proposal. Ranges of results and the potential variation in assumptions are important in considering the results shown.

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