Donald Trump's Tax Plan under the NCPA's Model of the U.S. Economy

Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s revised tax plan (Trump 2.0) would increase private sector jobs by 3 million in 2017, while reducing public sector jobs by 554,000, according to a report by the National Center for Policy Analysis. In other words, for every public sector job lost, over five private sector jobs would be gained. In 2026, more than six private sector jobs would be gained for every public sector job lost. Trump’s plan would promote tremendous job growth as well as other economic growth effects [see the tables]:

  • In the first year (2017), real GDP would increase $985 billion, representing a growthrate of 5.64 percent above Congressional Budget Office baseline estimates. In 2026,this growth rate would increase to 9.36 percent!
  • Personal income in 2017 would be $646 billion more than CBO baseline estimates, agrowth rate of 3.83 percent. In 2026, this growth rate would increase to 5.64 percent.
  • Business investment would increase by $191 billion in 2017, representing a 7.16percent growth. In 2026, this would increase to a substantial 11.72 percent aboveCBO baseline estimates!

This analysis is based on results from the NCPA’s modeling of the U.S. economy, in partnership with Dr. David Tuerck and his team at the Beacon Hill Institute in Boston, Massachusetts.

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